Fort Myers, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

442
FXUS62 KTBW 101317
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
917 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

We have seen some moderately strong storms moving through the
northeastern gulf and moving ashore along the Nature Coast in Levy
County. The Cedar Key buoy reported a thunderstorm wind gust of 45
mph as one of the storms came ashore around 8 am. Radar continues to
show storms firing up over the eastern gulf and moving east-
northeastward and model guidance has this trend continuing through
the day. Therefore, I have made some changes to the POPs through
this evening to better align with latest radar and model guidance.
No other changes needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, but can`t
completely rule out some brief MVFR/IFR CIGs in passing showers
and storms. Model guidance is bringing showers and storms ashore
near the TAF sites after 18Z, so will hold VCSH and VCTS at all
sites after 18Z and continuing through Sunday morning. There will
likely be some rain-free periods, but there is a potential for
showers and storms through the entire period. SE winds less than
10 knots expected early morning, then becoming SW around 8-13
knots with some higher gusts late morning and continuing through
the afternoon hours. Southeast winds less than 10 knots return
after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

A surface low and frontal boundary is still on track to develop over
the central gulf and move eastward over the weekend, which will
bring a very wet weather pattern over the eastern gulf waters with
even higher chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday. Some moderately strong storms have been moving through the
northeastern gulf this morning producing some wind gusts around 45
mph. This trend will continue through the day with storms and
showers firing up moving from west to east. A predominant southeast
through southwest wind flow around 10-15 knots will prevail over the
eastern gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week.
Main hazard each day will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing locally gusty winds. This low pressure system
pushes south and east of Florida by Tuesday evening allowing for
clearing conditions as high pressure builds into the central and
eastern gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  89  75 /  40  40  80  90
FMY  89  73  91  74 /  30  30  60  70
GIF  88  72  89  73 /  70  40  80  80
SRQ  85  74  89  72 /  40  40  80  90
BKV  87  71  88  69 /  60  40  90  90
SPG  84  76  87  74 /  30  40  80  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Giarratana